Playing the odds
May 8th 2008 03:33
I'm prepared to bet against Phil Mickelson retaining his title this week at the Players Championship.
Phil was disappointing last week at Wachovia when he got into too much trouble and was singing the double bogey blues on numerous holes.
In a tight, but Tiger-less field, I'm going with consistency: Stewart Cink has to win a tournament soon and it could well be here. He was third last year and has just been in total control of his game all year - which is what you need to do to succeed at Sawgrass.
Another ultra-consistent player this year is Ireland's Paddy Harrington. He's churned out a string of good cheques and has a good record at Sawgrass.
Robert Allenby has been striking the ball better than anyone on tour in recent weeks but cannot get the ball into the hole as frequently as he'd like. Given how often he's hitting fairways and greens, a small upswing in his putting game will be all that's needed to turn frustrating top-10s into a pressure-relieving win.
For a roughie don't discard Pat Perez. Ok, so the guy doesn't have the flashest record but he's got a habit of bobbing up among the contenders on difficult courses.
For a top five place you could toss up Mickleson, Adam Scott, Vijay Singh, Jim Furyk . . . or maybe Brandt Snedeker. The kid has had time to get over his Masters euphoria/letdown and has been solid rather than spectacular the past couple of weeks - but there's something in him that seems to rise to the big occasion.
In Europe, the Italian Open has drawn an even if not deep field.
If Robert Karlsson can reinvent his Masters form he'll be a chance but my fear is that he's had too much off since then.
So I'm looking wider afield, although not too far. Italian Francesco Molinari has hit some form recently and is a winner on this course. He looks a grand chance.
Others I won't be surprised to see fight for the lion's share of the cash are Englishman David Lynn, Spaniard Jose Manual Lara, Aussie Marcus Fraser, who has been in good steady form, and Swede Martin Erlandsson, a guy who can really go low when he's hot and this is a course where the winning score will be around 20-under par so you need a birdie-maker.
Good luck and check back early next wek for a synopsis of the weekend.
Phil was disappointing last week at Wachovia when he got into too much trouble and was singing the double bogey blues on numerous holes.
In a tight, but Tiger-less field, I'm going with consistency: Stewart Cink has to win a tournament soon and it could well be here. He was third last year and has just been in total control of his game all year - which is what you need to do to succeed at Sawgrass.
Another ultra-consistent player this year is Ireland's Paddy Harrington. He's churned out a string of good cheques and has a good record at Sawgrass.
Robert Allenby has been striking the ball better than anyone on tour in recent weeks but cannot get the ball into the hole as frequently as he'd like. Given how often he's hitting fairways and greens, a small upswing in his putting game will be all that's needed to turn frustrating top-10s into a pressure-relieving win.
For a roughie don't discard Pat Perez. Ok, so the guy doesn't have the flashest record but he's got a habit of bobbing up among the contenders on difficult courses.
For a top five place you could toss up Mickleson, Adam Scott, Vijay Singh, Jim Furyk . . . or maybe Brandt Snedeker. The kid has had time to get over his Masters euphoria/letdown and has been solid rather than spectacular the past couple of weeks - but there's something in him that seems to rise to the big occasion.
In Europe, the Italian Open has drawn an even if not deep field.
If Robert Karlsson can reinvent his Masters form he'll be a chance but my fear is that he's had too much off since then.
So I'm looking wider afield, although not too far. Italian Francesco Molinari has hit some form recently and is a winner on this course. He looks a grand chance.
Others I won't be surprised to see fight for the lion's share of the cash are Englishman David Lynn, Spaniard Jose Manual Lara, Aussie Marcus Fraser, who has been in good steady form, and Swede Martin Erlandsson, a guy who can really go low when he's hot and this is a course where the winning score will be around 20-under par so you need a birdie-maker.
Good luck and check back early next wek for a synopsis of the weekend.
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